Where are we heading to now?
This doesn't seem to be the end, especially as the US signals that there might be more to come.
Manufacturing the justification
While initially right after the attacks to Iran yesterday the US seemed to be posturing that the job is done and their involvement is over, since this morning we’ve seen more and more messaging from both the media and the respective governments that there will be more US intervention to come. From regime change calls from Trump to insinuating that Iran’s nuclear capabilities didn’t get taken out hard enough, it seems like the US is posturing to enter into another long-lasting war.
1. The Trump Tweet - MIGA
Since Trump is not one for subtlety, today he directly called for a regime change in Iran. What that essentially means is for more direct US involvement in a war. The goalposts have officially started moving from nuclear enrichment to regime change. Since the start of this war, this has been a coordinated plan with Israel for regime change. The nuclear conversation was just a starting point to get people comfortable with US direct military involvement. Now, the new argument will be that the only way to fully make Iran nuclear-free is by making sure the current regime is gone.
2. Netanyahu says we found more uranium
In a press conference today, Netanyahu said Israel has “interesting intel” on the whereabouts of Iran’s 400 kilograms of 60 percent enriched uranium1. This was followed by a confirmation by Pete Hegseth that the Iran still has its uranium. As you can see, the new narrative has quickly become the fact that Iran still has its enriched uranium and was able to hide it before the strikes. This opens up the US to justify more intervening and for Israel to continue its bombing campaign in Iran in an effort to supposedly get rid of this uranium. This is another angle that the admin will be using to justify and get the consent of the people to continue the war.
3. Reports of ‘sleeper cells’
Since the strikes yesterday, the US and some others on Twitter and the media have spun up a narrative of Iran somehow having ‘sleeper cell’ agents embedded that people need to worry about. Of course, with many of these things, this is undeniably being fabricated or blown out of proportion as an attempt to get people scared and more likely to support a war with Iran. This not only is being spread by the right, but also with democrats such as the New York mayoral candidate Andrew Cuomo and Independent candidate Eric Adams. There seems to be a concentrated effort all around right now to push this narrative. The issue with this is this will have direct effect of people here in America as it furthers harassment and hate towards minority groups.
The End Game
So then, the question becomes to what end? Why does the US even want this war? This is the part I must speculate. For one, getting rid of Iran simplifies things a lot more for US interests in the Middle East region, allowing it to freely control the world’s biggest oil region without any worries of intervention by non US aligned forces. The main Arabian alliance is all on the US side (Qatar, Saudi Arabia, UAE, etc.), the other actors have been more or less neutralized (Yemen, Iraq, Jordan, etc.), and with Iran out of the way any ties from China and Russia will be eliminated. However, what I think the US is miscalculating is that China and other eastern interests will be very keen to keep some control of that region, if not for the oil, then for the trade routes and strategic interests. China just recently finished a railroad project from their country to Iran, to better efficiently trade oil and other goods2.
Secondly, this is politically good for Trump internally. As we have often seen, war raises the popularity of the person in charge and with the current unpopularity of Trump internally due to the deportations and unpopular tax bill, scaring people into a conflict can act as a unifying force in the general public to increase his popularity. The angle of sleeper cells also gives Trump more legitimacy to increase deportations and quell the protestors.
Iran is currently in a lose-lose situation. Whether they act or not, the US will want either their own regime or a weakened state, and so for their interests they will continue to escalate. Whether this leads to a wider international conflict will be dictated by how ultimately Russia, China, Pakistan, and even North Korea react. In the meanwhile, millions of innocent people will pay the price of the suffering who are caught in the crossfires of geopolitical plays.
https://www.timesofisrael.com/liveblog_entry/pm-israel-has-interesting-intel-on-whereabouts-of-irans-60-enriched-uranium/
https://www.eurasiantimes.com/first-freight-train-from-china-wheels-into-iran/